The Patriots QB issue:
Could Tom Brady Get Cut?
Elvis Gorenko------06/28/2017
When people talk about teams with issues at QB, not many mention the Patriots. I mean... why would you? They have one of the best players in the history of football line up under center. But the QB situation in Foxborough is quite complicated and worth looking into. So let's jump into it.
To start, let's take a look at Brady's contract with the Pats. A big part of the Patriots success is that Tom is often willing to take less money to field a more competitive team. This is fairly common knowledge among NFL fans. Last season, Tom Brady only lost 1 game after returning from suspension, took his team to one of the most memorable Superbowls of my lifetime, and in the eyes of many, solidified his spot as the best QB of all time. For those services, Tom Brady accounted for a cap hit of just under $14M. He collected a high amount in bonuses, mostly due to the Superbowl run, but his cap hit was over $10M less than that of Eli Manning.
This is a pretty big deal from the standpoint of Belichik. If he wanted to, Brady could've been making $25M+ for several years now (and in the process, made a lot of QBs like Derek Carr even more rich). But instead, he was able to save them money, which allowed them to bring in guys like Chris Long, Alan Branch, Jabaal Sheard and Chris Hogan. Guys like that don't make any headlines when they're signed during Free Agency, but they've been key cogs in the Pats success in the last 3 years.
So what's changed? Why would the Patriots consider getting rid of Brady when he can deliver on the field, and strengthen the team off of it? Well time is a fickle bitch. And so is the salary cap. While Brady has so far defeated father time, the story of Peyton Manning has to be in Belichiks head. In January 2014, Peyton smashed the record books on the way to one of the most dominant single season performances in NFL history. In January 2015, Peyton started breaking down, and Denver had to rely on a strong run game to make the playoffs despite a strong start to the season. By January 2016, Peyton was a complete shell of his former self, unable to complete basic passes. The effect of time can strike at any time in the NFL, and Brady is no different. So where does that leave the Pats?
Well, they're all in on 2017, so that's a start. I don't think people are talking enough about how dominant the Pats look on paper. Everyone knows the Pats are good, but don't think people are appreciating how good. They are the defending Superbowl champions, with a roster that- on paper anyway, looks markedly better than the roster they won the Superbowl with. They lost some players like Sheard and Bennett, but added Brandin Cooks, Stephon Gillmore, Dwayne Allen, Rex Burkhead, and Mike Gillislee, while managing to retain Butler and Hightower.
So now we get to the more tricky part. It's hard to prognosticate the future of the team without knowing what happens in the 2017 season. So for now, let's stick to what we know. As recently as 2 months ago, the Pats were reportedly entertaining offers for backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo. If we believe the reporting, the Pats turned down at least one offer of a 1st round pick- namely the Browns' 12th overall pick.
At face value, that seems like a solid return for a 2nd round pick with less than 100 attempts in his career. Furthermore, Jimmy is currently entering his contract year. While teams may be apprehensive giving unproven QBs big contracts after the Osweiler fiasco, I still think without playing another snap, Garoppolo could make $18M/yr on the open market. It likely wouldn't be a long term contract in a realistic sense- more likely a deal that looks long, but the guarantees are front loaded into the first year or two allowing teams to cut ties if he doesn't pan out. Nevertheless, a hefty fee for a guy with 2 starts under his belt.
So what do the Patriots do in this situation? Well that's where it gets hazy. What happens if Brady has another spectacular season and wants to play continue playing? In this case, Patriots are likely accept that they lost the opportunity to draft a solid player in a solid class, and let Jimmy walk. In exchange, Bill gets the security of a backup in 2017, who he trusts more than Jacoby Brissett. On top of that, he gets insurance that he can just sign Garoppolo next year and move on, in case Brady has a Peyton-esque drop off, or just decides to retire.
This is why I'm skeptical of the narrative that Bill declining trade offers means he's sold on Jimmy being Brady's heir apparent. I don't consider it an absurd position to think that with the way the Patriots roster looks, Bill would prefer a solid contingency for Brady during the 2017 season over a first round pick. With the way Belichik approaches scouting, it's possible he concluded that there are no starters likely to be available at the pick they could get for Jimmy.
This is where we get to the fairly outlandish (in my opinion) scenario going around that the Patriots could get rid of Brady at the end of the 2017 season, and re-sign Garoppolo.With the way Brady's contract is structured, I don't understand how this is possible. Last year, Brady signed a 2 year extension, guaranteeing the 39 year old $15M in both 2018 and 2019. There were some rumblings following the Superbowl that the Patriots were looking into restructuring Brady's contract, to pull some of the latter year guarantees into his 2017 contract. This would make sense, seeing as Brady's Guaranteed figure for the 2017 season is only $1M, his cap hit is only $14M, and the Pats have roughly $17.5M in cap space. However, nothing has materialized, and Brady's contract still stands as is.
For this reason, I'm inclined to believe one of 2 things. I already mentioned the first. Bill decided he values having a solid backup behind Brady (and a contingency plan in case of sharp regression) over a first round pick. The second is even more simple. The reports of the interest generated by Garoppolo was bunk. To me, this seems like the most viable scenario. First of all, the majority of the rumors focused on the Browns. Well as we see now, the majority of rumors circulating the Browns QB situation leading up to the draft were also bunk. They didn't trade for Jimmy. They didn't trade for Kirk Cousins, They didn't take Trubisky over Myles Garrett, and they didn't just pass on Watson, they traded out of the spot where he was taken.
I think it's fairly obvious at this point that the Browns aren't as desperate for a QB as many reporters will lead you to believe. They were happy to draft talent elsewhere early on, then had Notre Dame project QB Deshone Kizer fall to them outside the top 50. Clearly they are content to enter the 2017 season with either Kesler or Osweiler under center at first, and then maybe give Kizer a shot if they feel confident in his development. People can read into Rapoport tweets all they want, but at the end of the day, nothing the Browns have done this offseason indicates they would have been willing to give up a 1st round pick for Jimmy. Especially after what happened with the Texans and Osweiler, and the lack of success from other ex-Brady backups like Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett.
So there you have it. A long dissertation of the Patriots QB situation, which could have probably just been summed with a couple sentences: It's the offseason, reporters have a job to do, and there isn't much to report. So sometimes, reporters will see some steam, mistake it for smoke, and assume there's a massive blaze.
Thanks for reading. I am currently working on a very long, comprehensive rundown of every team's draft class. This is likely to take me a little while. I might post another few articles like this while working on the draft review, but I'm going to try and focus on that. When that's posted, I will begin working on 2017 previews, as well as some fantasy content.
Well, they're all in on 2017, so that's a start. I don't think people are talking enough about how dominant the Pats look on paper. Everyone knows the Pats are good, but don't think people are appreciating how good. They are the defending Superbowl champions, with a roster that- on paper anyway, looks markedly better than the roster they won the Superbowl with. They lost some players like Sheard and Bennett, but added Brandin Cooks, Stephon Gillmore, Dwayne Allen, Rex Burkhead, and Mike Gillislee, while managing to retain Butler and Hightower.
So now we get to the more tricky part. It's hard to prognosticate the future of the team without knowing what happens in the 2017 season. So for now, let's stick to what we know. As recently as 2 months ago, the Pats were reportedly entertaining offers for backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo. If we believe the reporting, the Pats turned down at least one offer of a 1st round pick- namely the Browns' 12th overall pick.
At face value, that seems like a solid return for a 2nd round pick with less than 100 attempts in his career. Furthermore, Jimmy is currently entering his contract year. While teams may be apprehensive giving unproven QBs big contracts after the Osweiler fiasco, I still think without playing another snap, Garoppolo could make $18M/yr on the open market. It likely wouldn't be a long term contract in a realistic sense- more likely a deal that looks long, but the guarantees are front loaded into the first year or two allowing teams to cut ties if he doesn't pan out. Nevertheless, a hefty fee for a guy with 2 starts under his belt.
So what do the Patriots do in this situation? Well that's where it gets hazy. What happens if Brady has another spectacular season and wants to play continue playing? In this case, Patriots are likely accept that they lost the opportunity to draft a solid player in a solid class, and let Jimmy walk. In exchange, Bill gets the security of a backup in 2017, who he trusts more than Jacoby Brissett. On top of that, he gets insurance that he can just sign Garoppolo next year and move on, in case Brady has a Peyton-esque drop off, or just decides to retire.
This is why I'm skeptical of the narrative that Bill declining trade offers means he's sold on Jimmy being Brady's heir apparent. I don't consider it an absurd position to think that with the way the Patriots roster looks, Bill would prefer a solid contingency for Brady during the 2017 season over a first round pick. With the way Belichik approaches scouting, it's possible he concluded that there are no starters likely to be available at the pick they could get for Jimmy.
This is where we get to the fairly outlandish (in my opinion) scenario going around that the Patriots could get rid of Brady at the end of the 2017 season, and re-sign Garoppolo.With the way Brady's contract is structured, I don't understand how this is possible. Last year, Brady signed a 2 year extension, guaranteeing the 39 year old $15M in both 2018 and 2019. There were some rumblings following the Superbowl that the Patriots were looking into restructuring Brady's contract, to pull some of the latter year guarantees into his 2017 contract. This would make sense, seeing as Brady's Guaranteed figure for the 2017 season is only $1M, his cap hit is only $14M, and the Pats have roughly $17.5M in cap space. However, nothing has materialized, and Brady's contract still stands as is.
For this reason, I'm inclined to believe one of 2 things. I already mentioned the first. Bill decided he values having a solid backup behind Brady (and a contingency plan in case of sharp regression) over a first round pick. The second is even more simple. The reports of the interest generated by Garoppolo was bunk. To me, this seems like the most viable scenario. First of all, the majority of the rumors focused on the Browns. Well as we see now, the majority of rumors circulating the Browns QB situation leading up to the draft were also bunk. They didn't trade for Jimmy. They didn't trade for Kirk Cousins, They didn't take Trubisky over Myles Garrett, and they didn't just pass on Watson, they traded out of the spot where he was taken.
I think it's fairly obvious at this point that the Browns aren't as desperate for a QB as many reporters will lead you to believe. They were happy to draft talent elsewhere early on, then had Notre Dame project QB Deshone Kizer fall to them outside the top 50. Clearly they are content to enter the 2017 season with either Kesler or Osweiler under center at first, and then maybe give Kizer a shot if they feel confident in his development. People can read into Rapoport tweets all they want, but at the end of the day, nothing the Browns have done this offseason indicates they would have been willing to give up a 1st round pick for Jimmy. Especially after what happened with the Texans and Osweiler, and the lack of success from other ex-Brady backups like Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett.
So there you have it. A long dissertation of the Patriots QB situation, which could have probably just been summed with a couple sentences: It's the offseason, reporters have a job to do, and there isn't much to report. So sometimes, reporters will see some steam, mistake it for smoke, and assume there's a massive blaze.
Thanks for reading. I am currently working on a very long, comprehensive rundown of every team's draft class. This is likely to take me a little while. I might post another few articles like this while working on the draft review, but I'm going to try and focus on that. When that's posted, I will begin working on 2017 previews, as well as some fantasy content.
